From data to decisions: an introduction to multiple criteria decision analysis

Speaker: Ian Durbach (University of St.Andrews.)

Abstract

This talk gives an introduction to the field of decision analysis. Complex decisions, like those faced in the management of environmental resources, involve finding a compromise between conflicting goals, often with uncertain or incomplete information about outcomes. Drawing boundaries around the decision can be difficult; sometimes what appears to be a single, once-off choice is actually a series of inter-related decisions. Different interest groups, each with their own opinions and preferences, are often involved.

Decision analysis provides a set of tools to deal with these kinds of challenges. Essentially this involves helping the decision maker to construct a model of their own preferences, which can then be used to guide the decision. In this talk I discuss this process of decision “aid”: structuring the decision problem, developing mathematical models of preference from axioms of reasonable behaviour, and assessing the parameters of these models.